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Synopsis
This chapter provides an understanding of what uncertainty
actually is. A continuum may be the best way to conceptualize
the uncertainty/certainty relationship. At the certainty end
are laws, principles and rules of thumb. Moving to the uncertainty
end are hunches, intuitions and unknowns. There are various
methods that people use to create certainty, including relying
on authorities, using their personal experience, relying on
their gut instinct, as well as more analytical approaches
such as reasoning and testing. New situations, the future,
complex systems, human behavior and knowledge are by their
very nature uncertain, as they are cloaked in ignorance, randomness
and complexity. There is a lot more uncertainty in the world
than ever gets acknowledged. There are numerous implications
of this fact: we need to respond appropriately to the different
types of uncertainty, recognize that what is fairly certain
to one person could be uncertain to another and avoid polarizing
statements about our degree of certainty.
Outline
- What are the
degrees of certainty?
- Laws
- Principles
- Rules of
thumb
- Hunches
- Intuitions
- Unknowns
- What makes
us "certain"?
- Authorities
- Experiences
- Gut instincts
- Reasoning
- Testing
- Implications
- What are the
sources of uncertainty?
- Ignorance
- Absolute
ignorance
- Knowledgeable
ignorance
- Randomness
- Complexity
- What are some
specific examples of things that are uncertain?
- The future
- New situations
- Complex systems
- Human behavior
- Human knowledge
- What are the
implications of this view of uncertainty?
- First, accept
the inherent fluidity of certainty levels
- Second, avoid
polarizing statements about your degree of certainty
- Third, respond
appropriately to different types of uncertainty
- Fourth, recognize
that what is fairly certain to one person could be uncertain
to another
- Fifth, remember
that people often misrepresent their certainty level
Take
the Chapter 3 Self Test
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