Chapter 5: What Are the Dangers of Creating Artificial Certainty?

Synopsis
The illusions of certainty are pervasive and often debilitating. An obsession with certainty sets in motion a never-ending cycle: the need for certainty is created, the search for a certainty provider begins, the certainty provider meets the need, but the results are disappointing and the certainty provider is blamed. The need for certainty remains, so a search for a new certainty provider begins and the cycle begins anew. Rumor mills and the "Program of the Month" mentality demonstrate this cycle; the rumor proves unfounded or the program "fails", and a new cycle begins. The process itself leads to self-deception, sealing off opportunities to learn and grow. In organizations, more faith is placed on cookie-cutter solutions than on truly understanding the nature of complex problems. On a personal level, many individuals lament the lack of self-actualization while never taking any risks. In the haste to pigeonhole every deviation from the norm, people artificially reduce the natural chaos. The world may seem more organized and predictable that way, but there is a price: we decrease the apparent variety in the world at the expense of reducing the capacity to learn. "Doing it by the book" becomes more important than exercising sound judgment based on the nuances of the situation.

Outline

1. The cycle of certainty
1. Step 1: The need for certainty is created
2. Step 2: The search for a certainty provider begins
3. Step 3: The certainty provider meets the needs
4. Step 4: The results are disappointing
5. Step 5: The certainty provider is blamed
6. Step 6: Return to step two
7. Some examples
   
   
2. How does the certainty cycle impact people?
3. How does the certainty cycle impact organizations?
4. Can the certainty cycle be broken?
   
   
   

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