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Chapter 8: How Can You Process Uncertainty?


Synopsis
Developing this sensibility requires a special fortitude to endure the inevitable failures while trusting your instincts and pressing on. It requires an ability to weigh options, a willingness to take calculated risks, and the discernment to select the right time to act. Dispelling myths such as postponing a decision is a bad idea, and order always creates understanding, is a useful starting point. To personally process uncertainty requires a different mindset that involves thinking like a sailor, avoiding inflexible commitments to any single idea or solution, drawing more pictures and diagrams of a situation, and identifying certainty levels associated with critical facts. To get an organization to process uncertainty involves discussing opportunities, perceiving nuances and playing around with fuzzy ideas. More specific ways to foster this kind of discussion involves such ideas as using methods that encourage dialogue rather than monologue, and focusing the communication system on how the organization thinks about issues (its "thinking routines") and speed rather than on what the company knows.

Outline

  1. Misconceptions
    1. Misconception 1: Postponing a decision is a bad idea
    2. Misconception 2: Effective leaders focus on predicting the future
    3. Misconception 3: Order always creates understanding


  2. How can you personally process uncertainty?
    1. Think like a sailor
    2. Explore contingencies
    3. Avoid inflexible commitments to any single idea or solution
    4. Draw more pictures and diagrams
    5. Identify certainty levels associated with critical facts
    6. Enjoy the ride


  3. How can you get your organization to process uncertainty?
    1. Use methods that encourage dialogue not monologue
    2. Explore the unknown with others
    3. Consistently frame challenges, not specific solutions
    4. Discuss different models of the situation
    5. Focus the communication system on thinking routines and speed

Take the Chapter 8 Self Test